A fascinating election night is promised in Cambridgeshire with YouGov’s latest poll suggesting three successes for Labour and one for the Liberal Democrats out of the eight constituencies being contested. The biggest ‘name’ to fail is expected to be that of Shailesh Vara, who has represented NW Cambridgeshire – that includes part of Peterborough such as Hampton and Stanground and surrounding towns and villages such as Yaxley and Ramsey – since 2005.
A former Secretary of State for Northern Ireland, he also served as a minister for Northern Ireland, a minister for justice, a minister in the Department for Work and Pensions and as a Government Whip.
YouGov predict the Labour candidate has a five-point lead over Mr Vara which would be a remarkable victory for the ambitious 21-year-old Labour city councillor from Cambridge Sam Carling who has nursed the seat for six months and will be out to overturn the 26,000-majority enjoyed by Mr Vara in 2019.
A much easier route to Parliament is likely for Mr Vara’s neighbour, Andrew Pakes, who YouGov believes will secure a whopping 49.6 per cent of the vote, with Mr Bristow likely to achieve just 24.9 per cent of the vote.
Mr Bristow is clutching at straws, according to Sky News, who said this week they had seen a letter to constituents in which he says the election “may change who runs the country – but don’t let it put Peterborough’s progress at risk”.
“More than ever, we will need a local champion in parliament who is on your side,” he continues.
“Someone who is fighting your corner – whether that’s with the Labour-led council or the next government”.
Another MRP arrives, this one from @Survation. While yesterday's YouGov was catastrophic for the Conservatives, this poll is firmly in apocalyptic territory, as it shows the blue team losing all their Cambridgeshire seats, even @SteveBarclay's normally ultra-safe North East Cambs pic.twitter.com/LrvZJMqqC9
— Phil Rodgers (@PhilRodgers) June 4, 2024
The problem for Mr Bristow is that, according to statistics compiled by TheyWorkForYou, he has consistently voted for Government policies that would stop improvement of biodiversity, ‘generally voted against measures to prevent climate change and consistently voted against improving environmental water quality.
TheyWorkForYou also say he consistently voted against higher taxes on banks, consistently voted for more restriction regulation of trade unions, and consistently voted against higher taxes specifically to fund health and social cares.
At the 2019 general election, he won the seat with a majority of 2,580 votes, and even having now won the support Peterborough entrepreneur Mike Greene – who stood against him as the Brexit candidate – Mr Bristow will recognise the tide has turned against his party.
The other major change, according to YouGov, will be victory for Liberal Democrat candidate Pippa Heylings.
It was no coincidence that Sir Ed Davey came to South Cambridgeshire to unveil his party’s election battle bus.
The constituency is their top target seat in East Anglia and with Lib Dems dominating the district council and achieving other local successes, Pippa is comfortably expected to win.
YouGov agree expect her to steamroll through with 43.7 per cent of the votes in the newly reshaped constituency which has enjoyed some boundary changes.
Ely and East Cambridgeshire constituency looks like a hold for Lucy Frazer, but Labour and Lib Dems are breathing heavily down her neck, according to You Gov.
NE Cambs is expected to remain true blue, with Steve Barclay odds-on favourite to win and although Labour is shown as only 11 points behind, no change is expected by YouGov.
Cambridge, of course, is predicted by YouGov to remain Labour which leaves just Huntingdon and the new constituency of St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire.
Boundary changes enabled the Conservatives to conveniently remove sitting MP Jonathan Djanogly and select former army officer Ben Obese-Jecty as their candidate, but the gap might yet be too close to call.
YouGov puts him less than 5 points ahead of Labour challenger Alex Bulat who has, like Sam Carling in NW Cambridgeshire, been busy for six months bedding herself into the constituency.
Here are the Cambs seat vote shares that @YouGov have released in their MRP poll published this afternoon. More details of their poll are here: https://t.co/R9qNc2HWYa pic.twitter.com/T4xrdMqBZi
— Phil Rodgers (@PhilRodgers) June 3, 2024
She is running a formidable campaign and the Labour councillor, and Cambridgeshire’s first migrant and refugee champion, can by no means be considered as runner-up at this stage.
Likewise, there are curious anomalies about the prediction for St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire where the big unknown will be that of independent candidate Stephen Ferguson.
He entered the race quite late after winning support from some Labour quarters who were unhappy about having Lambeth councillor Marianna Masters parachuted in as their candidate.
“The executive (St Neots Labour Party) might be happy, but I have been contacted by half a dozen members of the local Labour party who are ‘so happy’ with this decision that they’ve asked me to stand and pledged their support for me,” he said.
Tory candidate Anthony Browne has been MP for South Cambridgeshire but has switched to what he believes is the more winnable seat of St Neots and Mid Cambridgeshire.
YouGov polling suggests it was a wise move, giving him an 8-point lead over Labour.
But these remain early days.
“Our first MRP projection of the 2024 British general election suggests that Keir Starmer could be heading to Downing Street with a historic majority of 194 seats,” says Patrick English, YouGov director of political research.
“With a central projection of 422 Labour wins, this result would be beyond landslide territory. Not only would Starmer’s majority be bigger than the number Tony Blair achieved in 1997 (179), but it would in fact be the second largest majority in British political history after Stanley Baldwin’s figure of 210 in 1924.”
“The Conservatives would be reduced to 140 seats, according to our model today. That would be their worst performance at a British general election for the party since 1906 – the first election where the Labour Party, then led by another Keir (Hardie), went into double-digit seat wins (27).”
EDITOR’S FOOTNOTE: Our thanks to @PhilRodgers – who you will find on Twitter – for his excellent election statistics and analysis. Well worth a follow.
